Base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

1.0 Pkt. (24h)1J

December 31, 202741%

June 30, 202720%

December 31, 2026-1.0pt5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Mittlere Qualität (66)Enger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen8,1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen813,6 $

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

1.0 Pkt. (24h)1J

$500M42%

$1B-1.0pt38%

$2B-1.0pt38%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Mittlere Qualität (64)Enger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen871.872,1 $

24h-Volumen20 $

POLYMARKET

Where will I live in October 2026?

6T

Menlo Park, CA72.2%

Stanford, CA5.3%

Berkeley, CA5.2%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose16 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 12 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

2Mon

Ja80.3%

Nein19.7%

Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

1J

Ja5%

Nein95%

Community-Prognose58 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 8 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

2Mon

70+100%

80+100%

90+100%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose28 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 16 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

2Mon

5–7 wins40.2%

8-9 wins30.2%

10-11 wins13.2%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

3J

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose74 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 11 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 203544.2%

2035 - 204524.1%

2045 - 206020.8%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose58 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 9 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

4J

111 - 12029.4%

121 - 12522.3%

101 - 11014.1%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

2Mon

United States11.7%

France5.5%

Canada4.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose19 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 12 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

3J

2.00% to 2.75%21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%16.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius46.9%

United Kingdom25.7%

United States10%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

210028.5%

207521.7%

205014%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

9J

Ja67.8%

Nein32.2%

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI75.5%

Anthropic55%

Google (DeepMind)35%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 5 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

2Mon

Ja1.9%

Nein98.1%

Community-Prognose49 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

2Mon

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY97%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.49%

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.37.5%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose148 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 16 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

3J

Ja10%

Nein90%

Community-Prognose46 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

2Mon

101-15093.8%

50-1003.4%

151-2001.2%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose55 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 13 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

2Mon

4.00%43.2%

3.75%25.5%

4.25%19.2%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 15 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

2Mon

Neither by close date92%

China invades Taiwan first6%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first1.7%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 52 Minuten

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

2J

Pete Buttigieg59.3%

Josh Shapiro59.1%

Raphael Warnock58.1%

+21 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

4J

Anthropic40.3%

OpenAI27.8%

Google13.8%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

1J

4.00%18%

4.25%17.1%

3.75%13%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

1J

5.4100%

5.5100%

5.6100%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

2Mon

$12,000-$13,99932.2%

$14,000-$15,99918.1%

$10,000-$11,99916.9%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 8 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

2Mon

($71, $91]96.8%

More than $911.9%

[$61, $71]1%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose79 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 4 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

2J

Any American receives it by end 2025100%

Any American receives it by end 2026100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income70.9%

+15 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose103 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 16 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Where will I live in October 2026?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")