base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 Pkt. (24h)1J

December 31, 2027

+6.5pt56.8%

June 30, 2027

34.2%

December 31, 2026

8.1%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Hohe Qualität (82)Enger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen7,9 Mio. $

24h-Volumen90.731,5 $

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$500M

59%

$1B

-1.0pt49%

$2B

43%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Mittlere Qualität (67)Enger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen749.383,7 $

24h-Volumen192,3 $

POLYMARKET

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Nein

94.4%

5.6%

Community-Prognose55 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 21 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

4Mon

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose74 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose58 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

3Mon

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose19 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 9 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 13 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 14 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

67.8%

Nein

32.2%

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 8 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 21 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

3Mon

Nein

53%

47%

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 14 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 11 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

3Mon

Nein

98.1%

1.9%

Community-Prognose49 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 21 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

3Mon

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose145 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 14 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

Nein

90%

10%

Community-Prognose46 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 17 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

3Mon

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose49 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 20 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

3Mon

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose5 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 16 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

3Mon

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose37 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 18 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 5 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 21 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

21T

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 13 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 14 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

0.2 Pkt. (24h)3Mon

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 18 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 8 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

6.6 Pkt. (24h)3Mon

$12,000-$13,999

+6.6pt31.3%

$14,000-$15,999

+3.5pt17.6%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.2pt16.4%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

3Mon

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose78 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 15 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 17 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose102 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 20 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")