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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 10:21 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Anthropic 40.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Anthropic 40.3%Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet29. Aug. 24, 15:58 UTC31. Dez. 30, 18:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWhat company will achieve the first successful air-launch to orbit rocket launch from the UK?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.
- This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
- If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)
