Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffKI4J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten

Daten vom 16.07.2026, 17:10 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

Führend unter 7 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Tagen

Veraltet

29. Aug. 24, 15:5831. Dez. 30, 18:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

OpenAI25%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Volumentrend

$23

15. Juli2T Daten16. Juli

Verwandte Märkte

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1145,1 €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Ja: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5390,7 €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3208,3 €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254.009,2 €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$64,528.79+0.85%

EthereumETH$1,883.35+1.40%

SolanaSOL$75.08+1.48%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.39%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.03%

BNBBNB$571.28+1.05%

Verwandte Nachrichten

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Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Regeln

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffKI4J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten

Daten vom 16.07.2026, 17:10 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

Führend unter 7 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Tagen

Veraltet

29. Aug. 24, 15:5831. Dez. 30, 18:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

OpenAI25%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Volumentrend

$23

15. Juli2T Daten16. Juli

Verwandte Märkte

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1145,1 €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Ja: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5390,7 €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3208,3 €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254.009,2 €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$64,528.79+0.85%

EthereumETH$1,883.35+1.40%

SolanaSOL$75.08+1.48%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.39%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.03%

BNBBNB$571.28+1.05%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Regeln

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)