Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 88.1%
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26
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
3. Aug. 23, 13:45 UTC1. Jan. 00, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
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Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 88% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) entschieden?
- Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/