Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 20.07.2026, 17:30 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseBerkeley, CA 15.3%+0.2%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Tagen
Veraltet24. Apr. 26, 18:301. Okt. 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Berkeley, CA15%
Volumentrend
$5013. Juli4T Daten20. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1145,1 €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
8,8 €Taken by force: 3.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
0 €~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
5390,7 €December 31, 2027: 66%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
3208,3 €$500M: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
0 €Ja: 55%
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Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St.