Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2035 66.2%Führend unter 12 Optionen
2035 66.2%Prognostiker
9
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet23. Dez. 24, 16:30 UTC11. Jan. 36, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves yes based on whether leading news networks refer to what happened as a nationalization or if that language is used by the government.
- Also resolves yes if the US government creates a project which becomes the leading AI lab in the country (at the time when it becomes the leading AI lab).
- Does not resolve yes if the relationship between the government and labs is only similar to that between the government and military contractors.