Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2026 96%+52.8ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
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+52.8 pts
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7. Jan. 25, 16:482. Jan. 35, 4:59
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We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 457.439,8 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 149.225,9 €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2026 mit 96% (Stand: 4. September 2026).
- Wann wird In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? entschieden?
- In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? soll am 2. Januar 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.