Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 92.7%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert7. Dez. 25, 16:03 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
- Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
- Detonation here means nuclear explosion.
- If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
- If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
- Previous similar markets:
