All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / UkraineChinaEuropa3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 06:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert19. Feb. 25, 09:57 UTC26. Feb. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the USA and China tie in the current Moon Race?
Manifold MarketsWill a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA China Russia AI will indict president Joe Trump in Delaware
Manifold MarketsUnited States gains new territory before China or Russia
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
A victory for dark enlightenment - fragmentation of the four biggest corrupt mega-entities.
- As the EU is already fragmented, it must be at or below the present (Feb 2025) level of unification.
- The other 3 must be at most at the same level - so there must be multiple entities managing their own taxation and security.
- If any is in the state of civil war, the actual situation/governance ability on the ground will be considered.
- Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fragmentation Count: Only 2 fragments is enough.
- Minimum Size Threshold: The fragmentation must be at least a 1/5 - 4/5 split, meaning both groups should constitute a significant proportion of the original entity.