Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.1%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet14. Dez. 25, 19:21 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
LimitlessIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical.
- Nuclear detonation, not a reactor.
- In space counts.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL)
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026? entschieden?
- Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical.