KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitBefore Jan 1, 2030 9%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
2776,2 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
22. Juli 26, 15:351. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
0%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before Jan 1, 20272%
Plattformen vergleichen· Before Jan 1, 2030
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt86% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 9% | — | 25,4 € | 23.547,9 € | vor 15 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| KalshiDiese Seite | Niedrig | 9% | — | 0 € | 2776,2 € | vor 15 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
5Mon
9%
5%
59 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen4488,2 €
24h-Volumen25,4 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$2522. Juli6T Daten27. Juli
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
1,2 Mio. €Fed maintains rate: 74%KALSHI
KALSHI
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
74.598,2 €0 (0: 85%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Fed rate hike by which date?
74.087,2 €October Meeting: 65%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Fed rate hike in 2026?
52.890,3 €Ja: 69%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
43.996,9 €Above 4.00%: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?
43.971,7 €Dissent: 29%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto News
Polymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim betsBlockchain.News
Polymarket sees 92.5% odds of July Fed hold as crypto jumps on easing inflationBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed hold slips to 56.5% after softer CPI chatterBlockchain.NewsRegeln
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.