KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigtVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 14.11.2026, 04:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Before Jan 1, 2031 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Gespeicherter Preis
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Marktqualitat
45 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Open Interest
5174,8 $
Mittleres Open InterestGeld / Brief
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2031Spread
—
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert22. Juli 26, 15:35 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Before Jan 1, 2031
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?
KalshiWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Before Jan 1, 2031
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? · June 30, 2027 6%
