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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Fed
  3. Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

FedOne-OffPolitikUS Politics6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before 2027
Before 2027 13%
Führend unter 3 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

1737,4 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

13.0% / 15.0%

Spread

15.4%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

12. Jan. 26, 15:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Before 202713%

PolymarketAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

1.4%6Mon
December 31
December 31
-0.5%22%
June 30
June 30
-1.4%4%
44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen14.254,3 €
24h-Volumen37,8 €
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Regeln

If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
  • The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
  • The following do NOT qualify:
  • Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination
  • This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.

Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.

Makro-Sensible Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,867.10+2.52%EthereumETH$1,658.07+1.88%SolanaSOL$65.28+1.86%

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3739,4 €
Rate / Cut: 94%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference?

48,3 €
Trump: 17%KalshiKALSHI
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How many government employees will Trump cut?

0,2 €
More than 100,000: 42%KalshiKALSHI
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Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

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Kevin Warsh: 88%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

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Regeln

If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
  • The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
  • The following do NOT qualify:
  • Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination
  • This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.