Warnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 27.07.2026, 03:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Claude 67%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
22 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
0 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
-
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
4. März 26, 11:461. Jan. 27, 4:59
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Claude67%
Plattformen vergleichen· Claude
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt93% Übereinstimmung · auto | Hoch | 63% | 0pt | 14.983,8 € | 4,2 Mio. € | vor 17 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 GeminiDiese Seite | Niedrig | 67% | +4pt | 0 € | 0 € | vor 17 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
5Mon
-1.0pt61.8%
+1.7pt14.7%
+1.3pt11.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
89 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen6,7 Mio. €
24h-Volumen14.983,8 €
KALSHIRegeln
Best AI at the end of 2026?
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$1.4k97.9%KALSHIMuse Spark — Novor 4 Tagen
KALSHIMuse Spark — Novor 4 Tagen$1.3k86.5%KALSHIChatGPT — Novor 7 Tagen
KALSHIChatGPT — Novor 7 Tagen$1.3k87.3%KALSHIGemini — Novor 12 Tagen
KALSHIGemini — Novor 12 Tagen$1.2k92.6%KALSHIGrok — Novor 18 Tagen
KALSHIGrok — Novor 18 TagenVerwandte Märkte
Which company has best AI model end of July?
44.078,6 €Anthropic: 99%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
GPU rental prices (H100) end of July?
19.241 €$2.30-$2.60: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
8361,8 €1480+: 87%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Best Chinese AI Company this week
7018,1 €Moonshot: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
6166,2 €By Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Top Coding AI this week
3858,1 €Kimi: 99%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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Best AI at the end of 2026?
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.