FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 83%
Nein 83%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1039,1 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
4
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill Russia introduce exit visas by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?
Manifold MarketsWho wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDivision of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
This market predicts whether NATO or the armed forces of a NATO member state will carry out kinetic military action within the internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation at any time between January 1, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC (inclusive).
- If such action occurs during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, mere troop deployments or exercises, interceptions of aircraft, drones, or missiles outside Russian territory, and the supply of weapons, funding, or intelligence to Ukraine will not count.
- Military action carried out by Ukrainian forces — including with allied-supplied weapons — will not count.
- To qualify, the action must be officially confirmed: the Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the member state(s) involved, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.