Who wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
PolitikOne-OffGeopolitikRussland / UkraineWahlUS-PolitikEuropa3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseTrump / Russia does not invade 80.8%Führend unter 4 Optionen
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Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
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Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member.
- Will that occur?
- Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025.
- Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member.
- This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders.
- Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification:
