Economy | Tahmin Piyasaları

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%17g

Above 3.0%

-5.0%92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$542,9 B

24s Hacim$10,6 B

KALSHI

CPI in July

1.0%17g

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

-7.0%88%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

100 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$277,6 B

24s Hacim$5,5 B

KALSHI

Recession this year?

1.0%6ay

Hayır

89%

Evet

-1.0%11%

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$2,9 Mn

24s Hacim$3,5 B

KALSHI

2026: Trump's dream year?

Hayır

95%

Evet

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$524,8 B

24s Hacim$2 B

KALSHI

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

1.0%4g

Above 0.0%

99%

Above 1.0%

+1.0%95%

Above 0.5%

93%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansı1.5–2.0%35%· ±1 puan

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$189,6 B

24s Hacim$4,1 B

KALSHI

Unemployment in July

3.0%12g

Above 3.7%

98%

Above 3.8%

98%

Above 3.9%

97%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$69,1 B

24s Hacim$2,5 B

KALSHI

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

0.1%7ay

Evet

-0.1%90%

Hayır

10%

72 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$31,4 Mn

24s Hacim$210,6

KALSHI

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0%1y

Hayır

79%

Evet

+2.0%21%

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$25,9 Mn

24s Hacim$147

KALSHI

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

18.9%6ay

0-1%

-4.5%56%

1-2%

+18.9%39%

-5.5%5%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$57,4 B

24s Hacim$4,4 B

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

4.0%6ay

Soft Landing

+4.0%62%

Overheating

24%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansıSoft landing62%· ±0 puan

79 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$55,2 B

24s Hacim$1,8 B

POLYMARKET

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

4.0%12g

Above -25,000

96%

Above 0

93%

Above 10,000

-1.0%91%

+10 daha fazla sonuç

91 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$61,2 B

24s Hacim$583,1

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5ay

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansıSoft landing62%· ±0 puan

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$51,5 B

24s Hacim$1,1 B

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

0.8%5ay

Above 4.5%

44%

Above 4.8%

17%

Above 5%

+0.8%10%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$697,4 B

24s Hacim$117,7

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17g

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

91 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$68,9 B

24s Hacim$498,7

KALSHI

US recession by end of 2026?

0.5%6ay

Hayır

88%

Evet

+0.0%12%

CoinRithm referansı12%· ±1 puan

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$1,7 Mn

24s Hacim$382,1

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Hayır

57%

Evet

43%

Topluluk tahmini347 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

18.5%3ay

3.0–3.4%

+18.5%43%

2.5–2.9%

-6.5%22%

2.0–2.4%

-11.5%14%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$1,9 B

24s Hacim$1,9 B

POLYMARKET

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

0.7%4g

1.5-2.0%

-6.0%38%

1.0-1.5%

+1.5%36%

2.0-2.5%

-12.2%14%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$31,8 B

24s Hacim$564,7

POLYMARKET

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2ay

Hayır

53%

Evet

47%

CoinRithm referansı47%· ±0 puan

83 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$51,7 B

24s Hacim$205,3

KALSHI

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Evet

97.4%

Hayır

2.6%

Topluluk tahmini16 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

2.1%6ay

0-1.0%

71%

1.0-2.0%

+0.5%16%

<0%

-2.1%9%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$25,5 B

24s Hacim$233,3

POLYMARKET

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

2.0%12g

Exactly 4.3%

-2.0%38%

Exactly 4.2%

-2.0%29%

Exactly 4.4%

14%

+20 daha fazla sonuç

60 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$40 B

24s Hacim$162

KALSHI

Russia Nominal GDP in 2026

2.4%8ay

Above $2.2 trillion

99%

Above $2.3 trillion

-2.4%92%

Above $2.4 trillion

79%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$5,8 B

24s Hacim$354

KALSHI

Unemployment in August

4.0%1ay

Above 4.9%

97%

Above 4.0%

+7.0%93%

Above 3.9%

90%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$6,4 B

24s Hacim$282

KALSHI

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

2ay

4.3-4.6%

+1.5%45%

4.6-4.9%

38%

4.0-4.3%

-1.0%12%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$8,6 B

24s Hacim$169,7

POLYMARKET

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

Hayır

94.3%

Evet

5.7%

Topluluk tahmini48 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next US recession start?

5ay

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q4 2024

+3 daha fazla sonuç

49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$514,4 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in 2026?

7ay

1.6% to 2.0%

26%

2.1% to 2.5%

24%

2.6% to 3.0%

15%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$274,1 B

24s Hacim$0,6

KALSHI

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

13y

Hayır

63%

Evet

37%

Topluluk tahmini22 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Other

+3.0%25.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

-0.4%11.4%

NVIDIA (NVDA)

-0.4%10.3%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Recession in Australia in 2026?

5ay

Hayır

81.2%

Evet

18.8%

Topluluk tahmini28 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini16 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

5ay

Hayır

96.9%

Evet

3.1%

Topluluk tahmini21 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Hayır

72.2%

Evet

27.8%

Topluluk tahmini10 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Hayır

83.7%

Evet

16.3%

Topluluk tahmini18 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

3ay

Shutdown & Democratic

86%

Shutdown & Republican

13%

No Shutdown & Democratic

-1.8%0%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

72 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$329 B

24s Hacim$4,2

POLYMARKET

2026: Trump's bad year?

3.0%1y

Hayır

88%

Evet

-3.0%12%

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$213,2 B

24s Hacim$5

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

Hayır

60%

Evet

40%

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$72,1 B

24s Hacim$81,2

KALSHI

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

0.1%2y

Hayır

70%

Evet

-0.1%30%

83 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$171 B

24s Hacim$14

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

1.0%3ay

Above 3.7%

-1.0%92%

Above 3.8%

-4.0%87%

Above 3.9%

79%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

60 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$9,2 B

24s Hacim$168

KALSHI

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Japan

19%

United Kingdom

India

+1 daha fazla sonuç

49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$166,7 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

3.0%3y

Hayır

84%

Evet

-3.0%16%

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$122,3 B

24s Hacim$4

KALSHI

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

Hayır

75.6%

Evet

24.4%

Topluluk tahmini40 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

5ay

Hayır

95.7%

Evet

4.3%

Topluluk tahmini32 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

Hayır

87.7%

Evet

12.3%

Topluluk tahmini49 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

1.0%2ay

Exactly 4.4%

17%

Exactly 4.3%

10%

Exactly 4.5%

10%

+20 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$3,9 B

24s Hacim$100

KALSHI

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

3ay

Evet

91.2%

Hayır

8.8%

Topluluk tahmini19 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment in November

8.0%4ay

Above 3.7%

91%

Above 3.8%

91%

Above 3.9%

85%

+11 daha fazla sonuç

28 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$3 B

24s Hacim$126

KALSHI

Ekonomi

İlgili Kripto Varlıkları

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

Recession this year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Unemployment in July

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

US recession by end of 2026?

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

Russia Nominal GDP in 2026

Unemployment in August

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

When will the next US recession start?

US real GDP growth in 2026?

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Recession in Australia in 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

2026: Trump's bad year?

Recession in 2027?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Unemployment in October

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Unemployment in November

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?