KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekli%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel ima edilen olasılık
Hayır 96%
Piyasa kalitesi
68 / 100
Orta kalite24s Hacim
₺5 B
Likidite
₺4,5 Mn
Yüksek likiditeAlış / Satış
4.2% / 6.7%
Spread
2.5 pt
Orta spreadPiyasa verileri
3 dakika önce güncellendi
17 Ara 25 15:00 UTC31 Ara 27 15:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
US government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Kalshi2026: Trump's dream year?
KalshiWill an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 a nightmare year for Trump?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
Açık piyasalar
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt52.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺90,4 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺32 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,6 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺921,5 B
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP-23.0pt51%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No76%
- Yes+3.0pt24%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺17,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺554,2 B
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Sık sorulan sorular
- 2026: Trump's bad year? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Kalshi, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 96% fiyatlıyor.
- 2026: Trump's bad year? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- 2026: Trump's bad year? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- 2026: Trump's bad year? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Kalshi bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.