KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekli%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiKabaca kalibreGüncel ima edilen olasılıkEvet 48%-1.0%
Piyasa kalitesi
91 / 100
Yüksek kalite24s Hacim
₺31,9 B
Likidite
₺1,4 Mn
Yüksek likiditeAlis / Satis
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Dar spreadPiyasa verileri
16 dakika önce guncellendi
9 Haz 26 20:301 Eki 26 14:00
Trendler
Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir
Seçilen sonuç
Yes48%
Platformları karşılaştır· No
Piyasa kalitesine, ardından likidite ve 24s hacme göre sıralanır| Platform | Kalite | Olasılık | referansa göre | 24s Hacim | Likidite | Güncellik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiBu sayfaGenel en iyi | Yüksek | 52% | +4pt | ₺31,9 B | ₺1,4 Mn | 16 dakika önce | |
 Polymarket%92 eşleşme · oto | Düşük | 53% | +5pt | ₺0 | ₺162,5 B | 16 dakika önce | Aç → |
Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut
Government shutdown by October 1?
5.5%2ay
-0.1%53%
+0.1%47%
40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik
Toplam Hacim₺44,1 B
24s Hacim₺0
POLYMARKETKurallar
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
Olasılıklar farklı piyasa yapıları, ücretler ve katılımcı havuzları nedeniyle değişiklik gösterebilir.
Hacim trendi
$6742 Tem25g veri26 Tem
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations