Güncel ima edilen olasılık
Hayır 99%
Piyasa kalitesi
≤49 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
—
Likidite
₺1,1 Mn
Orta likiditeAlış / Satış
0.4% / 1.0%
Spread
0.6 pt
Dar spreadYorumlar
0
7g Değişim
-1.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 dakika önce güncellendi
10 Haz 26 16:29 UTC2 Eki 26 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiKurallar
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
Açık piyasalar
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt52.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺90,4 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺32 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,6 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺921,5 B
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP-23.0pt51%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No76%
- Yes+3.0pt24%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺17,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺554,2 B
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Sık sorulan sorular
- Government shutdown by October 1? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Polymarket, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- Government shutdown by October 1? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Government shutdown by October 1? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ekim 2026.
- Government shutdown by October 1? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Polymarket bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Government shutdown by October 1? başka nerede listeleniyor?
- Aynı soru şu platformlarda da listeleniyor: Manifold Markets, Kalshi.