AI | Tahmin Piyasaları

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17g

Anthropic

+3.4%89%

Google

-1.0%10%

OpenAI

-0.4%3%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$13,5 Mn

24s Hacim$189,7 B

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6ay

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+1.3%96%

↑$1.25T

+1.0%90%

+10 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1,5 Mn

24s Hacim$107,1 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17g

Anthropic

-1.5%91%

Google

OpenAI

+0.3%2%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1,7 Mn

24s Hacim$20,3 B

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6ay

December

+4.5%49%

September 30,

+1.0%12%

August

+1.9%5%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$2 Mn

24s Hacim$18,6 B

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17g

No IPO by June 30, 2026

99%

<100B

100–200B

+4 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1,7 Mn

24s Hacim$5,1 B

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,

90%

October 31,

69%

September 30,

16%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$272,3 B

24s Hacim$6,3 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

1ay

Anthropic

81%

Google

-0.3%9%

OpenAI

-0.2%7%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$93,2 B

24s Hacim$6,2 B

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1ay

July 31

-1.1%96%

June 30

+3.0%92%

June 23

-2.0%54%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$889,2 B

24s Hacim$19 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17g

Anthropic

-0.1%96%

OpenAI

-0.1%3%

xAI

+0.3%1%

+26 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$65,8 B

24s Hacim$7,1 B

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6ay

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-6.0%51%

750B–1T

-0.1%13%

1T–1.25T

+1.6%12%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$1,8 Mn

24s Hacim$5,6 B

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6ay

Evet

+0.0%8%

Hayır

-0.0%92%

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1 Mn

24s Hacim$12,6 B

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6ay

↑$900B

89%

↑$1.0T

+1.0%81%

↑$1.25T

+10.0%79%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$623,5 B

24s Hacim$9,5 B

POLYMARKET

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4s

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+7.1%88%

Other

-9.4%9%

claude-opus-4-6

-0.1%0%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$158,9 B

24s Hacim$28,5 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17g

Anthropic

-1.0%87%

Google

+4.5%11%

OpenAI

+0.7%3%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$596,4 B

24s Hacim$4,2 B

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1y

600B+

+1.5%95%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

300–400B

+0.3%1%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$356,9 B

24s Hacim$2,8 B

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17g

June 23

+7.5%27%

No release by June 30

-0.3%18%

June 30

14%

+27 daha fazla sonuç

77 • Yüksek kaliteSpread bilinmiyorYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$109,2 B

24s Hacim$5,6 B

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15g

June 22–June 28

-0.4%56%

June 15–June 21

+7.0%30%

Not released by June 28

-6.1%12%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$148,8 B

24s Hacim$5,9 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17g

Anthropic

+1.5%89%

Google

OpenAI

-0.9%2%

+26 daha fazla sonuç

91 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$98 B

24s Hacim$4,3 B

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17g

Alibaba

-3.0%80%

Z.ai

+2.0%18%

Moonshot

+3.7%5%

+22 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$40,8 B

24s Hacim$6,7 B

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1y

$2.5–$2.75T

-0.5%16%

$1.25–$1.5T

-0.5%16%

<$1.25T

+5.5%14%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$19,3 B

24s Hacim$10,7 B

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17g

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

+1.8%5%

DeepSeek

+8 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1,6 Mn

24s Hacim$1,7 B

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18g

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$377,8 B

24s Hacim$3,8 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17g

Google

-7.0%49%

Anthropic

+2.0%29%

OpenAI

+3.0%17%

+26 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$202,3 B

24s Hacim$3,6 B

POLYMARKET

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

6ay

<30%

0.9%

30-40%

0.9%

40-50%

0.9%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini38 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$94,5 B

24s Hacim$44,4 B

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18g

↑$850B

-14.5%39%

↓$800B

+1.3%31%

↑$875B

-4.0%20%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$197,8 B

24s Hacim$1,5 B

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1y

1.8T+

-0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

-0.5%18%

1.5–1.8T

-0.1%18%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$147,7 B

24s Hacim$1,1 B

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19g

Perplexity

3.4%

Anthropic

1.1%

Mistral

2.9%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini48 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$151,9 B

24s Hacim$1,3 B

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6ay

Evet

+0.0%98%

Hayır

-0.0%2%

91 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$63,8 B

24s Hacim$4,4 B

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1ay

July 31

-1.4%95%

June 30

84%

June 26

+0.5%68%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

61 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$51,1 B

24s Hacim$6,8 B

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6ay

2026

-3.0%22%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$2,9 Mn

24s Hacim$2 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1ay

Anthropic

-1.5%65%

Google

+7.0%20%

OpenAI

-3.0%7%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$7,6 B

24s Hacim$4,8 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1ay

Anthropic

-10.0%66%

Google

+12.0%22%

OpenAI

+2.0%6%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$8,8 B

24s Hacim$3,1 B

POLYMARKET

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump bans abortion nationwide

4.4%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

1.6%

+248 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini1,631 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$1 Mn

24s Hacim$479,2

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17g

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

-6.5%58%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$342,6 B

24s Hacim$2,3 B

POLYMARKET

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

6ay

ARC-AGI

13%

FrontierMath

5.7%

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

48.1%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini6 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$9,6 B

24s Hacim$6,5 B

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17g

June 30

+0.7%92%

June 19

-4.0%18%

June 12

-1.6%2%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

79 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$301,9 B

24s Hacim$2,1 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

6ay

Anthropic

67%

Google

+2.0%18%

OpenAI

-1.0%10%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$7,7 B

24s Hacim$812,2

POLYMARKET

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

6ay

Earbuds/Headphones

+2.5%32%

Clip-on device for clothing

+0.5%21%

Glasses

19%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$308 B

24s Hacim$1,2 B

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1y

Anthropic

-0.1%76%

OpenAI

+0.1%24%

79 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$158,3 B

24s Hacim$4,9 B

POLYMARKET

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1ay

Anthropic

+0.5%78%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

+0.5%6%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$6,5 B

24s Hacim$1,4 B

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19g

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini592 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$364,2 B

24s Hacim$350

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Kill everyone - Liron

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

8.8%

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

34.5%

+36 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini301 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$72 B

24s Hacim$25 B

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6ay

None in 2026

-1.0%70%

Anthropic

-2.0%21%

OpenAI

+1.7%6%

+29 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$78,2 B

24s Hacim$436,6

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17g

Anthropic

+0.5%86%

Google

-2.5%9%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6ay

ChatGPT

-1.1%15%

Claude

-0.6%67%

Gemini

-3.1%12%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$54,1 B

24s Hacim$500,8

KALSHI

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

11.4%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

100%

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

45.3%

+148 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini187 tahminciTür: multiple choice

Toplam Hacim$73 B

24s Hacim$351,6

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

6ay

Google

56%

OpenAI

35%

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6ay

Anthropic

-0.1%61%

OpenAI

+0.1%39%

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$27,3 B

24s Hacim$2,2 B

POLYMARKET

YZ

İlgili Kripto Varlıkları

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

OpenAI IPO by...?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO by __?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Best AI model on June 13?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?