Inflation

Fed Decision in July?

No change

+5.5%79%

25 bps increase

-6.7%20%

50+ bps increase

+2 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansıNo change79%· ±0 puan

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$93,3 Mn

24s Hacim$2 Mn

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

1.0%4ay

Evet

-0.0%71%

Hayır

+0.0%30%

100 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$4,7 Mn

24s Hacim$44,4 B

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike by which date?

4.3%3ay

October Meeting

+0.5%69%

September Meeting

61%

July Meeting

-4.3%20%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

100 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$1,5 Mn

24s Hacim$7,6 B

POLYMARKET

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%17g

Above 3.0%

-5.0%92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$542,9 B

24s Hacim$10,6 B

KALSHI

CPI in July

4.0%17g

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.1%

+4.0%91%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$277,5 B

24s Hacim$5,4 B

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Annual

0.5%16g

3.3%

-1.0%37%

3.4%

37%

3.5%

20%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

73 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$104,4 B

24s Hacim$5,3 B

POLYMARKET

How high will inflation get this year?

21.0%6ay

At least 4.0%

100%

At least 4.5%

-21.0%35%

At least 5.0%

21%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$591,2 B

24s Hacim$952,7

KALSHI

US gasoline CPI for July

17g

Above 320ㅤ

99%

Above 300ㅤ

96%

Above 310ㅤ

96%

+24 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteSpread bilinmiyorYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$104,7 B

24s Hacim$4,2 B

KALSHI

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

1.0%4g

Above 0.0%

97%

Above 0.1%

-1.0%71%

Above 0.2%

-1.0%4%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansı≤0.0%98%· ±95 puan

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$106,7 B

24s Hacim$3,1 B

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Monthly

3.0%16g

≥0.1%

+3.0%68%

0.0%

26%

-0.1%

-0.3%7%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

80 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$48,7 B

24s Hacim$2,3 B

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

1.1%5ay

2 (50

-0.5%33%

0 (0

+0.5%30%

1 (25

30%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$55,8 B

24s Hacim$1 B

POLYMARKET

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Hayır

81%

Evet

19%

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$25,9 Mn

24s Hacim$101,2

KALSHI

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17g

Exactly 3.3%

34%

Exactly 3.4%

31%

Exactly 3.5%

25%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$169,9 B

24s Hacim$559,1

KALSHI

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

+28.5%52.3%

Republican president, <2%

-4.5%23.2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

-10.3%14.9%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini32 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will CPI get this year?

21.0%5ay

Above 4.1%

99%

Above 3.8%

93%

Above 3.9%

93%

+10 daha fazla sonuç

64 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$110,3 B

24s Hacim$445

KALSHI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3.5%6ay

Soft Landing

+3.5%62%

Overheating

+2.0%26%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansıSoft landing62%· ±0 puan

79 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$55,2 B

24s Hacim$1,9 B

POLYMARKET

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5ay

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansıSoft landing62%· ±0 puan

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$51,5 B

24s Hacim$1,1 B

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17g

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

91 • Yüksek kaliteDar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$68,9 B

24s Hacim$494,7

KALSHI

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

27.0%4g

↑ $4.00

+41.5%100%

↑ $3.90

+15.4%100%

↑ $4.25

-27.0%9%

+8 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$9,2 B

24s Hacim$2,8 B

POLYMARKET

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

8.0%5ay

4.00% to 4.49%

+7.5%42%

4.50% to 4.99%

+8.0%22%

3.50% to 3.99%

-4.1%19%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$46,2 B

24s Hacim$601,2

POLYMARKET

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

1.9%5ay

4.1-4.4%

+0.6%31%

3.8-4.1%

-1.4%18%

3.2-3.5%

+0.1%9%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$30,2 B

24s Hacim$278,7

POLYMARKET

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

1.5%16g

2.4%

+8.5%48%

2.5%

+1.5%27%

≤2.2%

+0.5%13%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$17,3 B

24s Hacim$400

POLYMARKET

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

1.0%17g

Exactly -0.2%

88%

Exactly 0.1%

29%

Exactly 0.0%

-1.0%28%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$14,4 B

24s Hacim$445,1

KALSHI

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

5ay

3.5–3.9%

+1.8%34%

2.5–2.9%

+0.1%22%

4.0-4.4%

-1.0%9%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$13,8 B

24s Hacim$557,4

POLYMARKET

US Core PCE (June 2026)

0.0

98%

0.1

67%

0.4

+2 daha fazla sonuç

CoinRithm referansı≤0.0%98%· ±95 puan

68 • Orta kaliteSpread bilinmiyorYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$457

24s Hacim$457

ROTHERA

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

5ay

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)

+1.2%99%

$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)

-1.0%0.3%

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

-0.1%0.2%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini30 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.3%5ay

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

1.1 – 1.5%

43%

1.6 – 2.0%

+0.1%8%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$61,7 B

24s Hacim$119,6

POLYMARKET

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

1.0%4ay

Hayır

72%

Evet

+1.0%28%

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$37,1 B

24s Hacim$234

KALSHI

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

6ay

y ≥ 2.0%

100%

y ≥ 2.5%

100%

y ≥ 3.0%

100%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini18 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

5ay

Silicon Data

+3.4%44%

Ornn

-1.8%23.8%

SemiAnalysis

-0.8%12.2%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

5ay

Alphabet

+6.6%95.4%

NVIDIA

94.6%

Microsoft

+5.7%90.2%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Evet

56.3%

Hayır

43.7%

Topluluk tahmini18 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will inflation get in 2026?

0.5%5ay

Above 3%

+1.4%100%

Above 4%

+2.0%100%

Above 3.5%

+0.1%100%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

72 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$1,3 Mn

24s Hacim$6,3

POLYMARKET

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17g

Exactly 2.4%

38%

Exactly 2.5%

26%

Exactly 2.3%

+4.0%12%

+13 daha fazla sonuç

60 • Orta kaliteSpread bilinmiyorYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$604,7 B

24s Hacim$28

KALSHI

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

5ay

Evet

80%

Hayır

20%

Topluluk tahmini144 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

1.0%5ay

Above 6.5%

100%

Above 6.6%

97%

Above 6.7%

77%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$61,6 B

24s Hacim$85,5

KALSHI

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

5ay

Hayır

96.7%

Evet

3.3%

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

1.0%17g

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

20%

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.1% or below

14%

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

13%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$71,6 B

24s Hacim$11

KALSHI

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5ay

5.00-5.49%

-0.1%39%

4.50-4.99%

26%

5.50-5.99%

-1.6%12%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$77 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

100%

He leaves Argentina during his first term

100%

He travels to Chile during his first term

100%

+67 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini162 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Hayır

84.2%

Evet

15.8%

Topluluk tahmini50 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

7.3%16g

0.2%

34%

0.1%

26%

0.3%

-0.1%25%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$61,5 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

16g

$2.00–$2.25

81%

$2.25–$2.50

12%

$1.75–$2.00

+7 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$15,4 B

24s Hacim$20

POLYMARKET

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

73y

Evet

79.3%

Hayır

20.7%

Topluluk tahmini58 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will South Africa collapse?

23y

After 2050

50%

Before 2050

48.8%

Before 2045

45%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini22 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

CPI-U index in July

2.0%17g

Above 335.8

98%

Above 333.6

88%

Above 334.0

55%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$51,7 B

24s Hacim$2

KALSHI

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%1ay

Above 3.0%

97%

Above 3.1%

+1.0%96%

Above 3.2%

+6.0%95%

+23 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$15,1 B

24s Hacim$82

KALSHI

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

0.1%5ay

30.0-34.9%

-0.1%42%

25-29.9%

+0.5%36%

35–39.9%

+0.1%6%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

71 • Orta kaliteDar spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$27,6 B

24s Hacim$12,5

POLYMARKET

İlgili Kripto Varlıkları

Fed Decision in July?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

July Inflation US - Annual

How high will inflation get this year?

US gasoline CPI for July

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

July Inflation US - Monthly

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

How high will CPI get this year?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

US Core PCE (June 2026)

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

China Annual Inflation 2026

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

When will South Africa collapse?

CPI-U index in July

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026