base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 puan (24s)1y

December 31, 2027

+6.5pt56.8%

June 30, 2027

34.2%

December 31, 2026

8.1%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Yüksek kalite (82)Dar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$7,9 Mn

24s Hacim$90,7 B

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$500M

59%

$1B

-1.0pt49%

$2B

43%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Orta kalite (67)Dar spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$749,4 B

24s Hacim$192,3

POLYMARKET

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Hayır

94.4%

Evet

5.6%

Topluluk tahmini55 tahminciTür: binary

21 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

4ay

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: multiple choice

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini74 tahminciTür: multiple choice

2 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini58 tahminciTür: multiple choice

2 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: multiple choice

2 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

3ay

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini19 tahminciTür: multiple choice

7 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini4 tahminciTür: multiple choice

9 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: multiple choice

13 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini32 tahminciTür: multiple choice

14 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Evet

67.8%

Hayır

32.2%

Topluluk tahmini15 tahminciTür: binary

8 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: multiple choice

21 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

3ay

Hayır

53%

Evet

47%

Topluluk tahmini15 tahminciTür: binary

14 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: multiple choice

11 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

3ay

Hayır

98.1%

Evet

1.9%

Topluluk tahmini49 tahminciTür: binary

21 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

3ay

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini145 tahminciTür: multiple choice

14 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

Hayır

90%

Evet

10%

Topluluk tahmini46 tahminciTür: binary

17 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

3ay

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini49 tahminciTür: multiple choice

20 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

3ay

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini5 tahminciTür: multiple choice

17 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

3ay

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini37 tahminciTür: multiple choice

18 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini32 tahminciTür: multiple choice

5 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini17 tahminciTür: multiple choice

21 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

21g

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini13 tahminciTür: multiple choice

13 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: multiple choice

14 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

0.2 puan (24s)3ay

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini26 tahminciTür: multiple choice

18 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini10 tahminciTür: multiple choice

8 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

6.6 puan (24s)3ay

$12,000-$13,999

+6.6pt31.3%

$14,000-$15,999

+3.5pt17.6%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.2pt16.4%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini10 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

3ay

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini78 tahminciTür: multiple choice

15 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: multiple choice

17 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini102 tahminciTür: multiple choice

20 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

İlgili Kripto Varlıkları

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")