Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiMenlo Park, CA 72%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-0.2 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Nis 26 18:30 UTC1 Kas 26 00:00 UTC
Trendler
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PolymarketKurallar
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).