Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiMenlo Park, CA 27.8%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
20 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Nis 26 18:30 UTC1 Eki 26 00:00 UTC
Trendler
0.5%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Açık piyasalar
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+6.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺384,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺36,3 Mn
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+6.6pt31.3%
- $14,000-$15,999+3.5pt17.6%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.2pt16.4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺22 B
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,5 B
- 24s Hacim
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Where will I live in October 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Menlo Park, CA için 28% fiyatlıyor.
- Where will I live in October 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Where will I live in October 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ekim 2026.
- Where will I live in October 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.