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23 Eki 2026 07:16 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
OpenAI 75.5%13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Nis 26 19:16 UTC31 Ara 00 20:12 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
