Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

base Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS Politics China Teknoloji YZ Jeopolitik5ay

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler

19 Tem 2026 22:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2

Güncel topluluk tahmini

China invades Taiwan first 11.9%+5.5%

4 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

dün guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

11 Oca 26 6:4831 Ara 26 23:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Both at the same time (or tie/ambiguuous)

0.5%

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

China invades Taiwan first12%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?

- "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.

Hacim trendi

$1.3k

18 Tem2g veri19 Tem

İlgili Piyasalar

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

₺22,3 B

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

₺472

Taken by force: 3.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

₺1,1 B

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 95.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

₺31,4 B

China: 46%

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company this week

₺1,5 Mn

Baidu: 1%

KALSHI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

₺111,8 B

↑$1.15T: 60%

POLYMARKET

Bu konularda aktif

BitcoinBTC$66,450.06+2.00%

EthereumETH$1,924.34+1.29%

SolanaSOL$77.77+0.17%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0735+1.83%

BNBBNB$572.70+0.22%

XRPXRP$1.15+3.42%

İlgili Haberler

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol on BaseCointelegraph

UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt

Kurallar

- "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

base Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS Politics China Teknoloji YZ Jeopolitik5ay

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler

19 Tem 2026 22:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2

Güncel topluluk tahmini

China invades Taiwan first 11.9%+5.5%

4 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

dün guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

11 Oca 26 6:4831 Ara 26 23:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Both at the same time (or tie/ambiguuous)

0.5%

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

China invades Taiwan first12%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

- "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.

Hacim trendi

$1.3k

18 Tem2g veri19 Tem

İlgili Piyasalar

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

₺22,3 B

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

₺472

Taken by force: 3.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

₺1,1 B

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 95.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

₺31,4 B

China: 46%

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company this week

₺1,5 Mn

Baidu: 1%

KALSHI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

₺111,8 B

↑$1.15T: 60%

POLYMARKET

Bu konularda aktif

BitcoinBTC$66,450.06+2.00%

EthereumETH$1,924.34+1.29%

SolanaSOL$77.77+0.17%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0735+1.83%

BNBBNB$572.70+0.22%

XRPXRP$1.15+3.42%

İlgili Haberler

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol on BaseCointelegraph

UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt

Kurallar

- "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.