PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 1 de set. de 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
December 31 17%-1.0ptLíder entre 7 opções
Qualidade do mercado
43 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
8,6 €
Liquidez
1,8 mil €
Baixa liquidezSpread
0.1 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
192
Variação 7d
-0.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado29/12/25, 22:051/01/27, 4:59
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.