PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem cotações ao vivo
Dados de 18 de set. de 2026, 02:41 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
2028 17%
Qualidade do mercado
41 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
2,9 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
8.0% / 14.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Spread amploComentários
1
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
10/06/26, 02:31 UTC1/01/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExSocial Security COLA for 2028
KalshiWill I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercados abertos
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 266,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 76,4 mil
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt92%
+11 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 93,1 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 157,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,3 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes-1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- € 3,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 12,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+2.0pt90.1%
- Yes-2.0pt9.9%
- Volume total
- € 1,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 12,1 mil
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 2.3%+5.0pt86%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- China unemployment rate in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Social Security Insolvent by which date??
- A Polymarket cota 2028 em 17% em 18 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Social Security Insolvent by which date? é resolvido?
- Social Security Insolvent by which date? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Social Security Insolvent by which date? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.