PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 95%
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
3,1 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
1
Variação 7d
-2.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 minutos
23/12/25, 22:45 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the ECB lower the rate 25bps in October 2026?
ForecastExFed rate cut before 2027?
KalshiFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
PolymarketFed rate cut by which date?
PolymarketWill the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
KalshiWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercados abertos
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 35 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 mais resultados
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 mais resultados
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de ECB rate cut in 2026??
- A Polymarket cota No em 95% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando ECB rate cut in 2026? é resolvido?
- ECB rate cut in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como ECB rate cut in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.