Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?
One-OffIATecnologiaCiência3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.2%
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Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado26/11/23, 00:22 UTC1/01/27, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
One of the most ambitious goals of mechanistic interpretability would be achieved if we could train a neural network and then distill it into an interpretable algorithm that closely resembles the intermediate computations done by the model.
- Some argue this is unlikely to happen (e.g. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d52aS7jNcmi6miGbw/take-1-we-re-not-going-to-reverse-engineer-the-ai) , while others are trying to make this happen.
- In order for the market to resolve to YES, a model as least as capable as llama2-7B needs to be distilled into python code that can be understood and edited by humans, and this distilled version of the model must perform at least 95% as good as the original model on every benchmark except adversarially constructed ones that specifically highlight the differences between the distilled and the original model.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96.2% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? é resolvido?
- Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: One of the most ambitious goals of mechanistic interpretability would be achieved if we could train a neural network and then distill it into an interpretable algorithm that closely resembles the intermediate computations done by the model.