Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 57.2%
Previsores
38
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado30/05/24, 15:38 UTC31/12/35, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX land on the MOON before Dec 31st 2028?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if any inhabited Israeli settlements or outposts are present in the current territory of the Gaza Strip on 31 December 2035.
- The legality of these settlements or outposts under Israeli law does not matter for this question to resolve YES.
- Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Military outposts are excluded.
- Only civilian Israeli settlements or outposts count.
- If a military outpost is later converted into a civilian settlement/outpost, it counts only if it is inhabited and present in Gaza on 2035-12-31.
- Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Edge cases (e.g., a single tent/unauthorized encampment): Counts only if reliable sources classify it as an Israeli outpost.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? é resolvido?
- Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2035.
- Como Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if any inhabited Israeli settlements or outposts are present in the current territory of the Gaza Strip on 31 December 2035.