Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
EconomiaOne-Off13aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 52%
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17
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado19/02/23, 23:35 UTC1/02/40, 08:00 UTC
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This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.
- The condition that real GDP reaches a new peak level is to ensure that recovery from a recession does not trigger positive resolution.
- For example, if the GDP series was [1.0, 0.85, 1.02] this question would not resolve positively, because the greatest growth over the sequence was only 2% as measured from a prior peak.
- This question will rely on credible estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in case there is uncertainty over whether real GDP grew by at least 15%, will wait until a final report is obtained.
- If the BEA is not active during resolution, or does not publish a relevant report, another credible source will be chosen at my sole discretion.
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 90,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
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- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 358,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,8 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 548,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 29,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
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- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHICPI core in August
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- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 17,7 mil
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
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- € 310,3 mil
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- € 6,5 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak? é resolvido?
- Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2040.
- Como Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.