Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 90%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 27 minutos
24/03/25, 15:41 UTC24/03/35, 15:34 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
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Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketCPI YoY in November
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation.
- It will resolve to "No" if:
- There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
- At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
- An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%).