Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
GeopolíticaOne-OffEuropa4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.3%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado12/10/23, 15:57 UTC2/01/31, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Ends January 1st, 2031.
- Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent.
- Accidents do not count.
- I used NATO to capture the spirit of "developed Western country," but any incident on the ground of a country that is a member of NATO at the time of the attack counts.
- Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at NATO country citizens.
- Primarily with a laser weapon means the damage was caused by the laser and it's direct causal effects and not by some other weapon.