Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / UcrâniaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.5%
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86
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binary
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado5/02/24, 11:43 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?
- • This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.
- • For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
- • Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.
- • Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- • This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.