Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / UcrâniaEuropa1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.7%
Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado16/01/24, 13:30 UTC2/01/28, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context.
- But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with.
- If so, I will update the description accordingly.
- Some points:
