Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 80.7%
Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado16/01/24, 13:30 UTC2/01/28, 22:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context.
- But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with.
- If so, I will update the description accordingly.
- Some points:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80.7% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.