Will there be an AI treaty between US and China by end of 2032?
Política comercialOne-OffIAGeopolíticaChina6a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 55.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 22 minutos
24/09/26, 22:59 UTC31/12/32, 23:59 UTC
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The market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2032 (11:59 PM UTC), the United States and the People's Republic of China formally sign a bilateral or multilateral treaty, executive agreement, or binding international accord that includes provisions regulating the development or deployment of frontier AI.
- "Frontier AI" means the most capable general-purpose AI models at the time of signing, and the systems used to develop them.
- Qualifying provisions include, for example: limits or thresholds on model training or capabilities; safety testing, evaluation, or incident-reporting requirements; restrictions on dangerous capabilities such as biological, chemical, or cyber weapons uplift; and inspection or verification regimes for frontier model development (including verification that relies on tracking computing hardware).
- An agreement counts only if it contains at least one provision that directly regulates the development or deployment of frontier AI.
- Agreements covering only related matters do not count, including: export controls, tariffs, or trade terms on semiconductors, chipmaking equipment, or other AI hardware; investment restrictions; data privacy or cross-border data rules; intellectual property; and rules for narrow or application-specific AI (e.g. facial recognition, autonomous vehicles).
- A broader agreement that includes such matters alongside at least one qualifying frontier AI provision does count.
