Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 78.7%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado30/03/25, 18:54 UTC31/03/28, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastEx[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 90,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 358,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,6 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 554,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 33,8 mil
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume total
- € 314,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 11 mil
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 17,7 mil
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 76 mil
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US experience a recession during 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the US experience a recession during 2027? é resolvido?
- Will the US experience a recession during 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de março de 2028.
- Como Will the US experience a recession during 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.