Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 91.4%
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227
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado3/03/26, 04:02 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
- Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting.
- If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
- I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).