Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 81%
Previsores
109
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 55 minutos
Atrasado13/01/26, 16:44 UTC31/12/26, 16:42 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- ‼️This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran.
- Trump has stated that military intervention "doesn't mean boots on the ground," suggesting that airstrikes, cyber operations, or other non-ground-based military actions would not satisfy the resolution criteria.
- The market resolves NO if no U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran by December 31, 2026‼️.
- Nationwide protests began on December 28, 2025, when merchants at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops over the Iranian rial's plummeting value, and demonstrations quickly spread nationwide with grievances evolving from economic concerns to broader opposition against Iran's clerical establishment.
- Violence in the country has led to dozens of deaths and arrests.
