Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
12.5 pts (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East3m
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
US 32.1%+12.5ptLíder entre 8 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
70 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
4,9 mil €
Liquidez
40,1 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
+17.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
26/08/26, 22:17 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.