Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 53.4%
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado27/10/25, 22:32 UTC8/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 53% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? é resolvido?
- Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? deverá ser resolvido em 8 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria