KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
AfD 77%Líder entre 7 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
18,5 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
28/07/26, 16:23 UTC25/03/30, 14:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
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KalshiWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegras
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Bundeswahlausschuss
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option
- This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.
- See full rules for details.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Next German federal election winner??
- A Kalshi cota AfD em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Next German federal election winner? é resolvido?
- Next German federal election winner? deverá ser resolvido em 25 de março de 2030.
- Como Next German federal election winner? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.