Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffEuropaEleiçãoGeopolítica3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 07:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 67%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado20/05/26, 21:00 UTC31/12/29, 22:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the government coalition currently led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (comprising the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party) remains in power until the next scheduled federal election.
- The market will resolve to NO if the coalition dissolves, a new government is formed, or a snap election is called prior to the next scheduled federal election in early 2029.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Government, the Federal President, or the Bundestag confirming the stability or formal dissolution of the governing coalition.
- Authoritative sources include the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) and major credible news outlets reporting on German government changes.
- The 21st German Bundestag was constituted on March 25, 2025, following early federal elections held on February 23, 2025.
