Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.2%
Previsores
54
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado22/01/25, 10:36 UTC1/02/27, 21:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market was created as the direct opposite of @chrisjbillington’s “Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War” with identical resolution criteria, but instead for Russia.
- https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
- Identical criteria with “Ukraine” replaced with “Russia”:
- This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Russian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Russia is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Ukraine or some coalition of which Ukraine is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Russian victory" or "Russian victory with territorial losses(/gains)".
Mercados abertos
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War? é resolvido?
- Will Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como Will Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market was created as the direct opposite of @chrisjbillington’s “Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War” with identical resolution criteria, but instead for Russia.