Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.2%
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54
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado22/01/25, 10:36 UTC1/02/27, 21:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
This market was created as the direct opposite of @chrisjbillington’s “Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War” with identical resolution criteria, but instead for Russia.
- https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
- Identical criteria with “Ukraine” replaced with “Russia”:
- This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Russian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Russia is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Ukraine or some coalition of which Ukraine is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Russian victory" or "Russian victory with territorial losses(/gains)".