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Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
One-OffCiênciaSociedade e cultura
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%Líder entre 4 opções
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+14.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado10/11/23, 19:48 UTC2/01/00, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiRegras
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.
- Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/578/?theme=light)