Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 90.2%
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado7/03/26, 00:40 UTC28/02/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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PolymarketRegras
This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.
- Casualties include deaths and injuries.
- The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran.
- Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 é resolvido?
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 deverá ser resolvido em 28 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.