Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
One-OffGeopolíticaOriente Médio2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 09:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 84.8%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado5/03/26, 16:13 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, the United States conducts ground military operations inside mainland Iran.
- “Mainland Iran” excludes offshore islands such as Kharg Island.
- For this market to resolve YES, all of the following must occur:
- At least 100 uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces are physically present on land inside Iranian sovereign territory.
- These personnel are participating in military ground operations (e.g., raids, combat operations, seizures of facilities, or other military activity conducted on the ground).
- The following do not qualify: