Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 90.3%
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105
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado11/03/26, 20:32 UTC12/03/27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820
- This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:
- The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC.
- Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.
- The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems.
- The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.