Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGeopolíticaMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 61.3%
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12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 minutos
5/09/26, 04:38 UTC30/09/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 61% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? é resolvido?
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria