Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86.9%
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Atualizado há 5 minutos
29/08/26, 15:33 UTC1/10/26, 00:00 UTC
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Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
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**Resolves YES** if, at any point from 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2026 through 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2026, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation anywhere in the world.
- Otherwise **NO**. **Direct strike:** the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets, or one-way attack drones/UAVs that target, impact, or are intercepted in the immediate vicinity of a U.S. military facility.
- Interception does not matter — a launch that CENTCOM confirms was aimed at a U.S. facility counts. **Iran:** the state's official military forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Iranian armed forces (Artesh).
- Strikes carried out solely by regional proxy militias (Houthis, Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, Hezbollah, etc.) do **not** count, unless U.S. Central Command or the U.S. Department of Defense publicly attributes the strike to Iranian forces directly. **Does NOT count:** attacks on commercial shipping, on non-U.S. bases, on embassies or diplomatic property, on allied forces at facilities that are not U.S. installations, cyber operations, sabotage, or any incident Iran's government denies and which CENTCOM/DoD does not attribute to Iranian forces. **Resolution source (in order):** (1) an official U.S. Central Command or Department of Defense statement; failing that, (2) concurring reports from at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse.
- If no qualifying strike is reported by these sources by 7 October 2026, this resolves NO. **Context at creation (29 Aug 2026):** Iran struck U.S. facilities in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain repeatedly in June and July 2026 (Operation Sa'eqeh, through phase 27 on 31 July).
- August 2026 passed with no qualifying strike; the Islamabad MoU ceasefire was extended ahead of its 17 August deadline and Qatari mediation was ongoing as of 27 August.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? é resolvido?
- Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: **Resolves YES** if, at any point from 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2026 through 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2026, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation anywhere in the world.