Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMilitary Installation or Static Deployment 100%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
46
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado28/02/26, 07:32 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
100%
100%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegras
This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a manned U.S. base, outpost, or recognized static troop deployment (e.g., Al Asad in Iraq, Tower 22 in Jordan, or THAAD batteries operating in allied nations).
- U.S. Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air): Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike, intentionally ram (causing casualties/sinking), or shoot down a manned U.S. warship, logistics vessel, or military aircraft.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a recognized U.S. Embassy or Consulate.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if a kinetic attack is successfully executed by recognized Iranian state agents within the 50 U.S. states or official U.S. territories.
- No Direct Attack Occurs in 2026: Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2027, if none of the above kinetic thresholds are crossed.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Military Installation or Static Deployment em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? é resolvido?
- Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.